![]() Combining these factors - economics show us that decreased demand and increased supply will push GPU prices lower. If the coin prices for ETC, RVN, or ERGO don’t pump then GPU demand from miners will naturally drop. Nvidia estimates that 30% of 2021 GPU sales went to crypto miners. If we take a 30,000ft view of the economy - the already improving supply chain for semiconductors is expected to return back to normal in 2023. So far I’ve only mentioned factors specific to crypto mining. Staking ETH may become a mania of its own as we battle inflation.Īnd so - miners will sell their GPUs at lower prices, claim mining is “dead forever”, and this is when we could see used 3060ti FHR selling for $100. Also ETH POS may look incredibly sexy - Coinbase estimates validator yields to increase from 4-5% currently up to 9-12% after the merge. Miners (especially newer entrants) will feel let down and capitulate. If hashrate migration doesn’t occur for some reason then the second hand market will be flooded. If prices don’t pump and hashrate migration occurs, then mining will be unprofitable. These alt-chains may become something in the future, but expecting the price to pump just because of a mining migration is dangerous thinking. It will most likely attract MORE activity to ETH as transaction costs become cheaper. Honestly ask yourself, besides mining, what makes these coins so special TODAY to pump 20x? Miners secure a network but there’s little network activity on these alt-chains when compared to ETH.Īnd so the misguided opinion is believing that significant network demand is going to somehow migrate to ETC, RVN, and ERGO right exactly when ETH POS improves scalability. 20x returns likely won’t all-of-a-sudden happen just to accommodate miners, as much as we wish they would. If you follow the four-year BTC cycle theory, we are entering the bearish period for prices historically speaking. These are incredible multiples to achieve in a bull market, let alone a bear. How big of a price pump is needed to maintain today’s profitability? Bits Be Trippin estimates: RVN needs to be around $1.50 (currently ~$0.08), ETC around $500 (currently ~$28), ERGO around $50 (currently ~$2.90). The value of those coins MUST rise dramatically to maintain today’s profitability. A current daily yield of 2 ERG/day could become 0.14 ERG/day after difficulty increases. Why? Well as miners switch their equipment over to mine these new chains mining difficulty will skyrocket. I think there’s a general misguided belief amongst miners that once ETH goes POS, other coins like ETC, RVN, ERGO will magically pump pump pump. Again, that’s just to get back to MSRP (normal prices). ~60% downside risk when I did my calculations last month. Let’s look at the current economics for GPU crypto mining:Ĭard prices are dropping but still have a long ways to fall just to get back to MSRP. I sold 1.5 GH of my GPU farm and kept 1 GH mining because I really do enjoy it. ![]() Roughly 2x more ETH by selling my GPUs today (January). I then figured out how much ETH I could buy if I sold all my GPUs. I calculated how much I would mine between now and POS in July. Should I keep mining or sell my equipment?
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